USDJPY D1 10 28 2020 1954

A three week decline takes price back into this critical support barrier for the third time in as many months and we’re looking for inflection off this threshold. A break / weekly close below would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March rally at 109.60. Weekly resistance now stands at the March channel line / October high-week close at 105.59- a close above this threshold would be needed to shift the medium-term focus back to the topside in USD/JPY with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at 106.00 and 107.02.

A downside break of the October opening-range in USD/JPY takes price into a critical support pivot ahead of the monthly close. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short exposure / lower protective stops – be on the lookout for topside exhaustion ahead of 106.00 IF price is indeed heading lower with a close below 104.12 still needed to keep the immediate short-bias viable. Lots of event risk on tap heading into the US Presidential Elections next week - stay nimble here and look for inflection off this zone. 

 

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GBPUSD D1 10 26 2020 1210

This weekend’s talks between the EU and UK in London have been extended Wednesday as both sides push to get a deal signed off before the end of the transition period. Talks will then move to Brussels on Thursday. The two sides are still seemingly apart on fisheries and state aid issues, despite positive sounds last week. France, according to the Daily Telegraph, is still refusing to compromise on access to the UK’s fishing grounds, and while this remains the case then progress is expected to be slow.

There is very little on the economic calendar this week to guide Sterling, while the latest coronavirus numbers show new infections around 20,000 while there have been another 151 fatalities. Patients admitted to hospital and patients in ventilator beds numbers are also rising sharply.

After touching 1.3180 last week, GBPUSD has faded back to just above 1.3000 this morning and now approaches not just big figure support but also a 20- and 50- day simple moving average crossover which needs to hold if cable is to push higher. A conclusive break lower could open the way to the recent double low around 1.2860.

 

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XAUUSD D1 10 14 2020 1813

The daily gold chart shows how the 50-day simple moving average (blue line) has acted as upside resistance since mid-September. Gold is currently toying with the 20-dma and if that breaks then initial support will be found around $1,872/0z. ahead of the late-September double low around $1,848/oz.

 

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FTSE 100 20201016 16.51

The daily chart shows the UK big board came with a few points of printing a fresh multi-month low on Thursday, although subsequent price action has been positive and strengthened that area of support. With this support seemingly in place for the short-term, the cluster of moving averages above continue to crimp price action and suggest a breakout. All three simple moving averages are within 50-55 points of each other and continue to point lower, constricting price action and leading to an imminent break. The three moving averages are clustered between 5,930 and 5,986 with the 38.2% Fib retracement at 5,889 just below. The FTSE will need a fundamental driver to force a breakout of the current technical stranglehold.
Away from the negative fundamental backdrop, the FTSE is also struggling to push higher with its path blocked by a cluster of moving averages which continue to force the indices lower. Add into the mix an important Fibonacci retracement level and multi-month low prints and the FTSE needs a boost of positive sentiment if it is to push higher.

EUR USD Mini 20201007 21.40

Euro is attempting a second weekly advance against the US Dollar after rebounding off confluence support into the close of September. The rally is vulnerable however as EUR/USD approaches the first test of resistance and we’re on the lookout for possible exhaustion on a stretch higher.

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